Does anyone believe the world is coming to an end on Dec 21, 2012?

Now that it's 2012, you can't help but here all those dooms day discussions about the Mayan Calendar and the end of the world on December 21, 2012. For the record I don't believe the world is going to end just because the Mayan's said so. 

I mean really? There isn't too many Mayan's left nowadays... why couldn't they figure out their own demise? Ironic, isn't it?

What do all of you think?

BTW: The best argument "For or Against" will get best answer credit. :D

65 answers
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Jan 10, 2012. 9:25 AMkelseymh says:
No. The Mayans didn't say so. Their calendar was cyclical, and the date corresponding to "Dec 21, 2012" is merely the end of one cycle and the start of a new one.

Those who believe otherwise aren't very good at research, and just believe what they're told by others.
Jan 10, 2012. 1:23 PMkelseymh says:
I think you'll find that Mayan research is pretty extensive; we can read the language, and they did a lot of writing. I would put more stock into authentic peer-reviewed research results than I would in some New Age mumbo-jumbo.

There is a very nice summary of the long-count calendar (the one everyone is so het up about) on Wikipedia. You'll find plenty of useful scholarly references there, and also a discussion of the fact that it's not just "the Mayan Tablet," but a wide range of dated enscriptions which can be cross-correlated to both one another and to known external (astronomical) events.
Jan 10, 2012. 5:07 PMkelseymh says:
Hear, hear! Cashing in on the hype is definitely what's going on. As for how the dates were correlated, Section 4 talks about it.

There are historical dates recorded by indigenous observers using the Long Count which can be directly correlated with Western (Spanish) recordings. There are dates recorded about astronomical occurrences which can be correlated the same way we correlate dates with Greek, Egyptian, Indian, and Chinese records. Finally, for dates recorded on certain items (such as wooden lintels), radiocarbon dating can be used to bracket the Long Count values.

Given the extremely large number of Mesoamerican writings with dates, it is straightforward to reconcile of all those individual matches to work out a global scheme (referred to as "GMT" in the text, after the three authors who did the major work).
Jan 10, 2012. 6:07 PMkelseymh says:
No, it's completely different. Follow the link in the article to "Julian day number." Julian days are counted using day 0 = Monday, 1 Jan 4713 BC (Julian calendar).

The GMT correlation constant says that the Mayan's "date of creation" ("13.0.0.0.0 4 Ajaw, 8 Kumk'u") occurred on Julian date 584283, or 6 Sep 3114 BC (Julian).

Once you know that, then you can work out any other specified date, since the Long Count calendar is directly indexed from that "date of creation".

In other words, the Long Count is nothing more than a Julian-day-number calendar, but starting at a different epoch.
Jan 10, 2012. 6:27 PMkelseymh says:
:-D Well, to be honest, I'm taking the author's word for it myself. I understand the concept, and I probably could work through the math if I had a week or two with no real work to do :-)

I will say, though, that because Julian dates are used universally in astronomy, the chance that someone made a "simple mistake" like that is almost nil: after all, if one author had done so, then other researchers in the field would have jumped all over it!
Jan 13, 2013. 1:03 PMcrapsoup says:
I still believe it!!!
Aug 6, 2012. 1:42 AMmuchensmile says:
NASA: world will not end! http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012.html
Aug 5, 2012. 1:55 PMTN777 says:
I do not beleive all that new age mayan mumbo jumbo. Only the Lord knows when the world will end.
Jan 13, 2012. 10:08 AMkelseymh says:
One of the main "science bloggers" (Chad Orzel of Uncertain Principles) is teaching a course on timekeeping and calendrics, and put up his slides from his class on the Mayan calendar.

As with any good set of slides, they're more or less useless without the Professor's narrative, but I thought I'd put up the links for general interest.
Jan 10, 2012. 5:12 AMrickharris says:
Yep. Been preparing for it for 2000 years. Now being especially good and helpful to my fellow man, giving to charity, feeding the poor and generally being nice to animals.

Well doesn't hurt even if I am wrong does it?
Jan 10, 2012. 3:56 PMVyger says:
So am I on your list for needing helping ? And if not why not? I will send you my current "needs" list if it will help. I buy cat food in 40 lbs bags. I need more mice to keep the crew entertained and to maintain a balanced diet.
Jan 11, 2012. 5:24 AMrickharris says:
I just checked and yes your on the list but I am sorry I can't ship beyond Antares & Rho Ophiuchi unless on a COD basis.

Please contact when you get closer.
Jan 10, 2012. 3:30 PMiproberry1 says:
how did you do those face guies?


...oh and i don't think 2012 is the end
Jan 10, 2012. 3:19 AMcaarntedd says:
Yes.
Jan 10, 2012. 6:15 PMcaarntedd says:
No. I don't believe it. I was just answering your question "does anyone believe..." :D
Jan 10, 2012. 9:32 PMcaarntedd says:
I'm cashing in my pro membership on Dec 20 to buy beer. Just in case. I can rejoin on the 22nd if all goes well.
Jan 10, 2012. 2:41 AMsteveastrouk says:
Did the Mayans believe it, or was it just a consequence of their maths - build a date into the system, wildly bigger than they could ever conceive of being a problem.

...like who would EVER need from than 640K of memory in their computer.

Steve
Jan 10, 2012. 1:28 PMkelseymh says:
Well, they actually built their system using an indefinite place-value system. The "2012" date is just the end of one cycle, before incrementing the next outward place holder.

Think about your car's odometer rolling over from 99,999 to 100,000. It's a big deal (to some people), but the fact that those lowest five digits all turn back to zero doesn't mean your car self destructs (unless it's a GM :-).
Jan 10, 2012. 5:00 PMkelseymh says:
Um, that's not how I read it. In particular, see section 5. Dates are quoted using both a five-place date (for which 21 Dec 2012 will be 13.0.0.0.0) along with an absolute offset (referred to as a "Distance Number" in the reference). That offset allows the date to reference any time at all, from the past through the future.

In addition, the same reference points out the use of "13" in the uppermost place for the date of creation does not imply that the date 12.19.19.19.19 is an "end point." The next day is simply 13.0.0.0.0, followed centuries later by 14.0.0.0.0, 15.0.0.0.0 and so on.
Jan 10, 2012. 6:00 PMkelseymh says:
You're right; mis-typed.
Jan 10, 2012. 4:38 AMsteveastrouk says:
Exactly !
Jan 10, 2012. 4:48 PMVyger says:
And finally, I am a bit confused about the start date for this event. Does it start at the international date line and then work its way around following the clock as each time zone changes to the 21st? If its an earth wide event then which time zone is designated as the zero time zone that it is suppose to start at? And just because its not the 21st in all places on the earth at the same time does that make it an inaccurate prediction? (One size fits all has just never been true) So how can one date fits all, work since everybody is on different times. Maybe they need to run a disclaimer at the bottom, in fine print , (Starting time for the end of the world may not be the same in all areas of the world due to local fluctuations in clocks and the political declarations of certain governments pertaining to the timing of the end of the world along with the proliferation of the "lets skip the 21st and go right to the 22nd" movement. )
Jan 10, 2012. 4:18 PMVyger says:
So, if I start up a company to sell end of the world insurance policies, will I get sued if after the end of the world happens I am unable to pay off the policies because all the policy holders are gone and all my assets have burnt up?
Jan 10, 2012. 4:08 PMVyger says:
The apes are going to rise and take over and humans are going to loose the ability to think (In some cases that has already happened) and speak. Don't you people ever watch movies? My question is how come it is only the ones with no tails, I mean what happened to baboons? Do monkeys and lemurs still stay less intelligent and become the victims of discrimination?
Jan 10, 2012. 10:19 AMlemonie says:
Jan 10, 2012. 2:32 PMlemonie says:
I posted an nearer one in there; guess what? - didn't happen (yet)

L
Jan 10, 2012. 7:46 AMjamiec53 says:
I remember reading somewhere that the mayans didn't actually intend for that date to be significant, I guess they just couldn't be bothered to make any more calender. I also think I read that modern day mayans also say that the date is not significant.

Maybe they were just trolling...
Jan 10, 2012. 2:23 PMjamiec53 says:
Yeah, I figure that its the end of a cycle like other people have said on here.

Yeah, it can be interesting to get other people's opinions on these sorts of things. But to be honest, they said the world would end last year with all of that rapture stuff, and people have been predicting the end of the world since the world began, so... I never really believe people on things like these unless they have scientific proof.
Jan 10, 2012. 2:00 PMmonsterlego says:
Another thing is that the calender has to end sometime, it just happens to end on the 21st.

And people think it will and by some other planet colliding with earth, NASA says that's ridicules.

Maybe it will and on the 22nd, THAT would be ironic.
Jan 10, 2012. 9:26 AMKiteman says:
There is no evidence at all that the world will end this year, or that the Mayans thought it would end this year.

I use an academic diary - does that mean the world will end in August.
Jan 10, 2012. 1:03 PMKiteman says:
Because doom-sayers and conspiracy-mongers grasp at anything they can pretend is evidence.

The Mayan "prophecy" has as much credibility as the claim that the Nazca lines are "runways" for alien spaceships.
Jan 10, 2012. 9:50 AMrickharris says:
Mmmm Possibly, after all Teachers are wise!!!!
Jan 10, 2012. 5:19 AMaelias36 says:
People do believe. But they're all silly.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hzF3vkmY28

You're welcome.
Jan 10, 2012. 6:13 AMRe-design says:
Seems like they did predict their own demise. They knew they would be almost gone by now and wouldn't need a calendar after now. They did miss by a few years but that can be attributed to the fact that they didn't plan for global warming.
Jan 10, 2012. 8:44 AMQuercus austrina says:
My world ends and begins anew simultaneously every second of every day, for the world that has just passed will never be again.

For some people it will be the end, but it will be their time anyway. For the rest, the world will go on. The only way for the world to "end" is for the vast majority to do something so stupid as to cause all life on Earth to cease to exist. If "we" haven't done this already, it is highly unlikely to happen this year, especially in this economic climate.

Take a cue from Alfred E. Neuman - "What, me worry?" and don't worry about the Mayan calendar.

Qa
Jan 10, 2012. 9:53 AMrickharris says:
I will die some time. For me the world will end. It may be tomorrow, next week, next year or next decade or two. Will it matter NO.

Long ago I learned: - IF your worried:

a) if you can do something then do it.
b) if you can't do anything then stop worrying
c) 90% of the things we worry about don't happen.
d) of the 10% that do they aren't as bad as we thought they would be.

When I figured this out life became MUCH better.
Jan 10, 2012. 8:19 AMmonsterlego says:
NASA says no, i say no.

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