Predicting the Weather with Clouds

Step 11 Stratocumulus

Stratocumulus are low-lying bumpy and grey clouds. They do not bring precipitation. They also do not cover the entire sky and tend to come in rows and patches.

Comments

[Rishnai]

Stratocumulus also tend to mean a storm will probably happen somehwere near(ish) that day. If you see them meeting with another cloud formation, such as nimbostratus. If you see nimbostratus clouds stop in a vey distinct line, and stratocumulus meeting, crossing, or coming near that line, plan for an indoor day with the possibility of severe weather directly to your north, south, or above you that day. In some cases, you will be able to watch a potentially severe stack go up over or just to the east of you, in which case someone about 100-250 miles to the east of you is about to have a bad day. At least that's what happens here, on the very western edge of tornado country. Many days, I can look up at the sky and predict (not well enough to become a pro stormchaser, unfortunately) whether severe weather will happen, and predict where it will be, such as "That sucker's going to do something nasty (tornado or bad hail) over at about I-76 and the state line." Or "From the looks of that, Peyton/Calhan is in danger today. We oughta call Sue and Bud, make sure they're alright in about four hours." For a while I could get people to bet me on that, then we'd sit around watching the weather radar and let the money change hands.

[dmwarheit]

Nimbostratus clouds are more associated with occluded fronts and long duration constant rainfall that severe weather. If you are seeing low lying thick dark clouds that have a swirl appearance to them you are probably looking at the base of a meso-cyclone. Basically they are a conglomerate of thunderstorms with enough energy to create it’s own counter clockwise rotation. While stratocumulus can be associated with inclement weather, they are more often caused simply by a mid level, 5-10k, temperature inversion that blocks the cumulus' vertical movement. When the cumulus can no longer going up they start to spread into stratocumulus. Hope this helped. :o)

[static]

Actually the pros don't observe clouds in making their morning decision as to where they will go that day. They can't because there destination may be a State away, when they start the chase. Of course they use cloud observations to fine tune the chase if their morning prediction was accurate. Sometimes they are good or lucky, perhaps both. I recall a Sunday when Chasers from Oklahoma where in NW Kansas waiting when a tornado formed. The NWS even hadn't even issued a tornado watch for that day. :)

[MaXoR]

You watched storm chasers too?!?! lol

[killerAP]

bs man. The weather men ALWAYS just take a look at the clouds in order to predict the weather. One time here in NJ they said it would be clear for a while, and then thirty minutes later we got hail.

[Rishnai]

I guess the point that we are both trying to make is that you can predict if the location you are at is about to get something, (unless you're a TV weatherman) but you can't just look at the clouds and know precisely what county a state and a half away is going to get a tornado. At least not in time to get there before the storms fire up and drop the tornado that you want to film. Storm chasers pick where they're going that day at or before ten in the morning, so that they can be there when the storm happens at three in the afternoon. People who like to watch clouds (and local weathercasters), on the other hand, can theoretically look at the sky at ten and tell what weather that spot is going to get at three. Except the weathercasters. I think they snort a line and flip a coin sometimes.

[Rishnai]

Yeah, I wish cloud-watching alone would make it possible to tell where a tornado might be, in time to get near there. If it was possible to predict clouds well enough by eye to go pro, I'd want to develop that skill. But as it is, I have to wait for a cell to start, and then do the judgment call: go for the north one, or the south one? Any cloud-watcher does, but if I wanted to see a twister, I'd be in the wrong spot to get near it in time. I like it that way. It's just that all the severe weather rolls off of the front range, so if something is going to hit the west 1/4 of Kanses/Nebraska, or any part of CO, I get to watch it form before it goes off somewhere past the horizon to forcibly remodel someone's home.

[vincent7520]

However I must add to my previous reply that your remarks confirm what I want to say :
1) your "expertise" in forecasting is local and is based on multiple factors starting with a good knowledge of local factors that was built over the years ;
2) TV weather forecast and other pro weathermen are on th whole very reliable, albeit some rare mistakes of course.

Actually your remark are very useful as you give practical examples to what I say on a more general level.

Thank you & Happy New Year to you an all your relatives (I know this is important in your country).

[vincent7520]

@ static and rishnal :
I didn't feel that Randolfo wants to use his cloud reading for tornado forecast…
I think he writes on a more general level.
As for myself, although I feel I have a proper overall notion of weather forecasting, as I live in a land were tornadoes do not exist (God forbids !…) in no way would I allow myself to forecast a tornado in one of your states.
This would be totally preposterous and ridiculous !!!…