Psychic Abilities: Mumbo Jumbo or Something Else? Scientific Discussion Only Please! Answered

would you say that you get your coin flip predictions correct, on average, 50% of the time?

No, it's fairly random, sometimes I'm completely wrong, but I'm trying to improve.

completely wrong as in you guess "sevens!" instead of heads/tails?

Okay, maybe the coin toss wasn't the best example. What I'm trying to say is, I sometimes know which side will come up. It's not just guessing.

On a side note, read some books by Russell Targ. He explains this much better than I do.

I can predict, with a 90% accuracy which side a coin will come up, but not because I have ANY psychic ability. I am just observant. Some people will pick up on this "pattern" without realizing what they are seeing. I know exactly what I am seeing.

i sometimes "know" which side will come up too....it's called guessing. it's how everyone "knows" which side will come up....sometimes. unless you can remove the "sometimes" bit, then you are, in fact, guessing not knowing.

you're suffering from something really common, it's called confirmation bias. youv'e decided that you can predict a coin flip, and you're shaping your evidence to support that conclusion. instead of looking at the evidence to arrive at a conclusion.

If it's "fairly random", then you are predicting nothing, just guessing from a limited number of options.

You must get a friend to test you: they toss a coin a thousand times. Each time, you predict the result while the coin is in the air.

If you get it right significantly more than 500 times out of the 1000, then it's testing properly, starting at 10,000 tosses of the coin.

No, what I meant is that the regularity of my correct predictions is random. Sometimes I get 10 in a row right, and other times I don't get one right.

Ten in a row out of how many? Ten? A hundred? A thousand?

Ten right in a row is perfectly possible with random guesses. Plus, in random guessing, "none at all" is just as likely "all correct".

Test it properly, or you've got nothing.

so basically, you have just stated EXACTLY the same probability anyone has at predicting a coin toss. I.E, you either get it right, or you don't

No, most people won't get it right several times in a row.

no, most people will get it right several times in a row....or not....that's called probabilities. on each and every coin flip you have EXACTLY 50% chance of getting it right. you have EXACTLY the same chance the next coin flip. there are ANY NUMBER of factors thatt effect how the coin will flip. it's how probabilities work man. it's like....math!

ROFL I thought you were saying that YOU could, then I re-read it a few times :P

I have a few cardboard trophies I won for being Punking and daubed Super-double entendre man LOL

i read that yesterday and didnt understand it. now it makes sense and im mad at myself for not seeing it sooner.

Don't beat yourself up over it, it was really subtle and vague ;-)

I heard how the James Randi thing, the Million bucks, is actually a sucky deal. Its mostly (all but $50,000 or $5,000, cant recall) were in bonds, and its paid out over time, and all this other sucky stuff that you had to go through. CIA on the other hand, would be better.

The prize is still on offer, but do check this applicant!

L

"9. At the formal test, in advance, an independent person will be placed in charge of a personal check from James Randi for US$10,000. In the event that the claimant is successful under the agreed-upon terms and conditions, that check shall be immediately surrendered to the claimant, and within ten days the James Randi Educational Foundation will pay to the claimant the remainder of the reward, for a total of US$1,000,000. One million dollars in negotiable bonds is held by an investment firm in New York, in the "James Randi Educational Foundation Prize Account" as surety for the prize funds. Validation of this account and its current status may be obtained by contacting the Foundation by telephone, fax, or e-mail."

Ah! So I was right!
I mean, of course I was right!

I don't like their setup. The part about showing a subject the list, then only calling it a successful test if they experience the effect that she was trying, and no other.
It seems that some subjects would placebo-effect themselves.

What's wrong with the protocol?
If she can "make people urinate themselves with the power of her mind" surely the volunteers/victims will report that? If they self-placebo themselves into Vomiting I'd be really interested...

L

No, they are only accepting it as a "good" result if they ONLY vomit. If say, shortness of breath, is on the list, and they report it, even if they vomitted, they will still call it a failure.

Yes, she's supposed to demonstrate an ability that she claims to have. L

Well, what I'm saying is, that the subject might have the placebo effect, and make themselves feel, say, sweaty. In that case, it is not her fault that the subject had the placebo effect, but it would be marked as a "bad" trial.

I should think that being sweaty wouldn't negate the result if she also demonstrated what she claims. The point being that something she didn't claim to be able to do wouldn't count instead.

L

"and the volunteer must feel *only* the effects of the talent Ms. Hunter was attempting to perform."

I suppose that I should check back there. 24th Sep (see previous link) "Ms. Hunter has agreed to allow us to air the test live via webcam. A loose date has been set for the first week of November." "Ms. Hunter will have fifteen minutes to paranormally cause Jeff Wagg to urinate himself. There will be no diapers involved. Mr. Wagg will empty his bladder beforehand, as per Ms. Hunter's instructions."

Wow! This should be fun!

i want to see the video of it afterwards. i do wonder though... how does one discover the fact that you can cause someone to urinate oneself?

Well, she could walk around town and realize everyone's wetting themselves as she walks past :P

Could this have anything to do with The Secret? I'm sure some of you know of the theory.

and understand, I am not trying to convince you one way or the other, but giving you another option/point of view, as it were.

Well, I am fond of watching Detective shows, in which people get poisoned. But still, I guess I should of said something when I did have the dream. Still, if I have any more that put my family in danger, heck yeah I'm gonna mention it to my parents. Just to be on the safe side. ;)

Yes, your subconscious mind is a powerful tool if used correctly. It can do some pretty neat things once trained properly.

Hmm? Like what?

Well, as mentioned, if you record dreams, "feelings" (especially bad, or 'not right' feelings) etc. One can tap more of that resource in figuring out problems. Remember Mr. Friedrich August von Kekule? He had a dream of whirling snakes, of the structure of benzene - the organic chemical compound made up of a ring of carbon atoms. Look what discovery that lead him too. One can train one's self to have "lucent" dreams also (the female population has the greater number of naturally occurring lucent dreams, but guys can learn it too), and thereby direct one's subconscious to solve problems the conscious mind has already given up on as a lost cause. But then, sometimes dreams are just information haphazardly thrown together that do not have any correlation. It never hurts to be more observant though, as long as it doesn't become an obsession.

> But still, I guess I should of said something when I did have the dream. . Don't beat yourself up for not saying anything. It was just a feeling. I'll bet that if you ask the other ppl close to your sister, they had similar feelings (and for the same exact reasons). . > gonna mention it to my parents. Just to be on the safe side. . Just don't become the boy who cried wolf. ;)

I don't feel too bad, you know, she's living. Nah, I won't mention a lot of things I dream, or my parents would take me to a psychiatrist. Ah, well, it's over now.

. Sounds like you have it under control - I'll stop playing Amateur Shrink. ;) . Can't help it! One more thing. It will probably be a while before your sister gets over it - do what you can to help. Sometimes just being there is enough, you don't even have to say anything. But I have the feeling you already plan on doing what you can. ;)

Hummmm, perhaps when not being used to operate waking systems, your mind slips off into some mode whear it simulates possible situations and sends the most plausible one to the rest of you as a dream? Might explain that. Hope your sister feels better. I admire your complexion, if someone were to poison one of my sisters, I'd kill them.

. Just guessing here, but I'd say: you knew this guy was a psycho well before the dream happened; you have had many dreams about him harming your sister, in various ways; if he had harmed you sister in any of those ways, you brain would have made that dream the "real" one. Plus, you had the clue that she was sick and you seem pretty bright, so that was already in the back of your mind and a frequent dream. . Not sure why the "I don't lie" disclaimer. If you were claiming to have started the General Lee with your mind, I might be suspicious. ;) . Hope things turn out well for your sister. She's probably gonna need a lot of hugs - give her one for me.

Your premonition can still be the rational of your subconscious "putting it all together". Consider the info laid out before your subconscious mind: Divorce from a "psycho", suddenly she is ill, and seems to be getting worse, what is making her ill ? Maybe she is being poisoned, and we know by whom. Your subconscious mind is really good at putting things together (sometimes things you would not consciously put together....this doesn't mean it is alway correct, but this is where we get "that weird feeling" from.