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Shell says "Peak oil in 7 years." Answered

In a recent e-mail to Shell employees, Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer writes:

"Regardless of which route we choose, the world's current predicament limits our maneuvering room. We are experiencing a step-change in the growth rate of energy demand due to population growth and economic development, and Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand."

2015 is seven years away and with limited resources and an expanding population we are sure to see more and more limitations on resources we take for granted. Water, cooking oil, and food are also in that list.

The e-mail goes on to say that little will likely be done about this situation by any governments until the poop has really hit the fan and by then it will probably be too late. Two scenarios are laid out in the e-mail, Scramble and Blueprints. One is a mad dash towards a solution as we hit the problem head-on and the other is to make a plan now for the inevitable.

Personally, I hope for the Blueprints scenario, but I feel like the Scramble is likely what we'll be doing.

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CameronSS
CameronSS

13 years ago

Last I checked, we hit peak oil one or two years ago. Current production and current demand has us running out by 2043. With decreasing production and increasing demand, it's going to be a lot sooner. No, drilling in Alaska won't help. There's just enough oil there to supply the US for 18 months. (!) Cough cough. There's lot of wind, sun, running water, melting magma, and changing tides. Unfortunately, the changing tide only generates electricity, and doesn't let people see through Big Oil's BS.

LeerCourier Shell.jpg
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Keith-Kid
Keith-Kid

13 years ago

WHen i was 7 i believe, I saw in my science book that we'd feel the real impact of running out of oil around 2017. this really freaked me out. Now I'm trying to green my life. Not to suck up, but Instructables was truly the main reason why I've started to go green. I have found amazing uses for stuff I'd normally throw out. Thanks I'bles!

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gmoon
gmoon

13 years ago

Wow. Fascinating how the estimates change, as our consumption skyrockets. Twenty years or so ago, they talked in "a couple hundred years." More recently, 20-40 year reserves...(yikes) Now-- less than 10 years of economically viable oil reserves..(BIG YIKES!) Regardless of how people 'spin' this, the estimates never get larger...

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fungus amungus
fungus amungus

Reply 13 years ago

Oh and demand will continue to increase as well. Good times.

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gmoon
gmoon

Reply 13 years ago

And at some point, they'll exploit all the environmentally-sensitive areas--you know it's gonna happen. A short-term "solution," which will yield (at best) a few more years of supply (and unbelievable profits at the higher prices.) While the companies tout huge investments they are making in alternative energy sources (framed by (but not motivated by) altruism, and a little late...) Leaving everyone with ( )? (Insert the panacea of your choice, or lack thereof.) Insert government here also, somewhere (preaching about the free market.) :-P (ouch, that's more than a bit cynical... but isn't meant to be a political statement; just a likely scenario...)

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gmoon
gmoon

Reply 13 years ago

So, looks like I'm anticipating the 'scramble...'

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fungus amungus
fungus amungus

Reply 13 years ago

Yeah. Going with my amateur knowledge of psychology, I'll go with that one as well.

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its a lion
its a lion

Reply 13 years ago

You are not the only one.

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Aar000n3y
Aar000n3y

13 years ago

But these things never change... Let's just wait a few more years...

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fungus amungus
fungus amungus

Reply 13 years ago

Heh... "There's oil in that sand. Let me stick my head in it for a while!"

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whatsisface
whatsisface

13 years ago

That's quite scary, it made me think about alternatives, even though I'm by far the least eco-friendly person ever.