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Psychic Abilities: Mumbo Jumbo or Something Else? Scientific Discussion Only Please! Answered

Right first thing: any statements made by me in this forum topic are to my knowledge completly true and un-exagerated.
Does anyone here believe that it is possible for someone to be psychic, or have "preminitions of the future"?
I for one believe it is entirely possible, or more correctly is true.
For I more or less have had preminitions of the future. Do't believe me? I will now describe one of the acourences and attempt to point out how it wasn't entirely a dream
Right, I'm in 4-H and one of the competions we have is called Food Show. All it is is that you have an interview with the judges and are asked questions about food and nutrition and the food item you have made.
Anyways, about a month prior to one of these Food Shows, I woke up after having a dream about it. Since I already had had helpful preminitions before, I quickley jotted down everthing. Any ways I dreamed about my interview and the judges, I dreamed that I walked down a hall, to a room I've never seen in my life, yet was exactly how it looked when I saw it for real. I then proceded with my interview, who I could distinctly see, yet I'd never met or seen them before. I had my interview (boring details of my questions and answers left out), and I walked back out. I woke up at that moment, for I had sleep-walked into my doorframe (this is the only preminision that I woke up from, all the others I would only fully remember until briefly before the event was ging to happen), and I quickley jotted down the details. So ayway fast forward to the day of the contest, I see for the first time one of the judges, who I had never seen before yet she was the exact same one from the dream. Anyways a little later I found myself heading down the same hall to the same never-before-seen-yet-recognised room and the same judges one who I never had seen yet recognised, and the one I had seen previously. We proceded with the interview, that went exactly as I dreamed, I even cracked a joke that I woud never have done if I hadn't "foretold" it's success. I wound up winning, so I must have done a good job. Has anyone esle had similar experiences? Are there any scientific explanations? Your input is greatly desired.
I AM NOT MAKING THIS STUFF UP

Discussions

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black hole

Reply 6 years ago

Look, I wasn't asking for an argument. I was simply stating what happens to me. If you've got a problem with it, too bad.

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crapflingerblack hole

Reply 6 years ago

you were stating something as fact, as evidence of "supernatural" powers of prediction. i.e. ESP or psychic ability.

after your own descriptions of all of your "skills", you do not meet the criteria of actually posessing anything other than random chance. sorry if that makes you sad or angry, but it's reality.

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black holecrapflinger

Reply 6 years ago

I really don't care what you think, and I wish you'd get off my back about it.

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crapflingerblack hole

Reply 6 years ago

listen, you're the one that came here and made a claim. would you like to retract that claim?

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black holecrapflinger

Reply 6 years ago

If you'll leave me alone, fine. I'm a deranged lunatic who thinks he's psychic. Happy now?

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Kitemanblack hole

Reply 6 years ago

Dude, chill. Read the link I posted - you could be a millionaire!

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black holeKiteman

Reply 6 years ago

James Randi has spent his life trying to prove that paranormal abilities don't exist. I don't think he would pay up for anyone, let alone a tennager with only basic skill.

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Kitemanblack hole

Reply 6 years ago

No.

He has spent his life proving that people who claim paranormal abilities are scam artists. His test procedures are carefully designed so that true abilities will pass.

It is amusing to watch supposed psychics worming their way out of subjecting their "abilities" to rigorous tests.

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black holeKiteman

Reply 6 years ago

Point taken.

What I'm trying to get across here(very badly, I know) is that I have little actual control over when these pyschic flashes happen. I'm training myself to do it 'on command,' but have made slow progress. Still, it ain't about to stop me!

Sorry if I was a little snippy earlier. I get frustrated too quickly. >_<

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kelseymhblack hole

Reply 6 years ago

And what others are trying to get across is that, unless you can demonstrate otherwise (under the kind of controlled conditions Mr. Randi specifies), they are not "psychic flashes."

They are nothing more than (a) perfectly normal and expected statistical distributions, combined with (b) the human brain's well-known and well-documented selection bias.

That is, your brain is built to remember things which fit an expected pattern, and to not remember things which fail to fit that pattern. This is not conscious, not deliberate, and certainly not any indiciation (or implication!) of fraud. It's just the way the brain works, but it has a consequence of encouraging belief in non-statistical "causes" for random situations.

If you want to know more, please do some research using keywords like "statistical distribution" and "selection bias."

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Goodhartkelseymh

Reply 6 years ago

with me it IS conscious; so I can actually predict within a 90% or better accuracy which side will come up, IF the flipper shows me the side of the coin that is already face up AND if he catches the coin. :-) Observation is cool ;-)

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kelseymhGoodhart

Reply 6 years ago

Your visual system is counting the flips in the air (or estimating them from the time of flight)? That's a good skill, and takes a lot of practice.

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Goodhartkelseymh

Reply 6 years ago

Not really. In the scenario I specify, if the coin it heads up, (depending on the one flipping) many times it will land face up (if caught) and if turned over onto the back of the hand (a useless gesture meant to fool someone into thinking you are making it more random) it will be tails up. This works best with quarters though. :-) Some people, it is the other way around and it isn't hard, after a few flips to see the pattern.

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crapflingerGoodhart

Reply 6 years ago

yeah, a quarter flip isn't as 50/50 random as people assume, the two sides are no where near centrally balanced, and the standard method of flipping the coin generally results in a repeatable, or at least predictable, amount of rotations (be that even or odd), so once you get a feel for the flipper you can usually track their flips pretty accurately and start predicting them based on what the starting position was.

I.E. a coin starting heads up usually lands heads up.

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Goodhartcrapflinger

Reply 6 years ago

Yes, and the only way to make it closer to being random is to allow it to drop on to a hard floor (concrete or wood), so it bounces, or rolls, and falls over.

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black holekelseymh

Reply 6 years ago

Oh, God, not you again! I had enough hell from you over the whole 'sls toothpaste' thing. Don't you have anything better to do with your life?

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Jayefuublack hole

Reply 6 years ago

This IS what he does with his life. Logical thinking to prove/disprove theories. It's what physicists do.

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black holeJayefuu

Reply 6 years ago

Ever hear of Russell Targ? He's a physicist, and he's also an excellent remote viewer. He worked for the CIA for 20-odd years as a 'psychic spy.'

And by the way, In my opinion, kelseymh is NOT capable of logical thinking. He told me that asking if anyone on an online forum knew of a SLS free flouride toothpaste would result in a trip to the ER.

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Kitemanblack hole

Reply 6 years ago

No, he didn't. He told you;

Asking for medical advice on an Internet forum is asking for trouble. Not telling your medical provider about an allergy is asking for trouble. Putting those two together is asking to pay for an emergency room visit. (link)

Targ may have sent his "research" to the CIA, but they didn't pay him for it - Targ and a colleague (Puthoff) funded the work themselves.

The research they started was terminated after a review of the work, which concluded in part;

The laboratory studies do not provide evidence regarding the origins or nature of the phenomenon, assuming it exists, nor do they address an important methodological issue of inter-judge reliability.Executive summary, "An Evaluation of Remote Viewing: Research and Applications", American Institutes for Research, Sept. 29, 1995

Which is a polite way of saying that they were doing poor science badly.

It is likely that both Targ and Puthoff started their work on the assumption that psychic abilities were real (which is poor methodology), and then focussed solely of finding evidence to support their assumption (which is the road to woowoo).  For instance, they were convinced Uri Geller's act was real, even though there is live-recorded video evidence of it being debunked.

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black holeKiteman

Reply 6 years ago

I don't know for sure, but I don't think they started assuming that the abilities were real.

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Kitemanblack hole

Reply 6 years ago

That is the layman's translation of the formal review, and of other reports of Project Stargate that I have seen.

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kelseymhblack hole

Reply 6 years ago

What I wrote: "Asking for medical advice on an Internet forum is asking for trouble. Not telling your medical provider about an allergy is asking for trouble. Putting those two together is asking to pay for an emergency room visit."

I stand by what I said, all of which is quite logical:

1) You will not get competent, reliable medical advice by collecting responses on Internet fora.

2) If you do not tell your medical provider about your state of health (especially about known allergies), then your provider cannot provide you adequate or safe medical care.

3) If you make use of unreliable medical advice, and do not allow your medical provider to treat you safely, then eventually you will have a medical crisis which requires emergency care.

I also, in direct response to your original search question, gave you a direct link to the Google search you could have done in the first place.

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black holekelseymh

Reply 6 years ago

I WASN'T ASKING FOR ADVICE!!! I TOLD YOU THEN AND I TELL YOU KNOW, I WASN'T ASKING FOR ADVICE!!!

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Jayefuublack hole

Reply 6 years ago

Yes you were... " Could someone recommend a brand of fluoride rinse lacking in sls?". You were requesting advice on toothpaste....

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GoodhartJayefuu

Reply 6 years ago

Another thing, I've been reading up on brain function/memory function, and anything based solely on memory WILL be distorted somewhat; and all too often it is distorted through the "filter" of one's own belief system; so such claims of abilities tend to morph reality, rather then the latter.

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crapflingerblack hole

Reply 6 years ago

listen, you're not taking the point

you're not the first person to claim this SPECIFIC ability, and you're no where near the first person to claim to have psychic abilities in general.

people have been claiming to be psychics, oracles, sooth sayers, seeers, etc.. etc.. etc.. for millenia. there has been exactly 0 instances of ANY such claims standing up to even the most basic scientific tests to prove that the claims are real.

exactly ZERO, none, not one, not a decimal number, not a "maybe", not even one single claim has ever been verified.

so, if you really do think you're that special snowlake, PLEASE let us help you set up your test with Mr. Randi so we can all share in the discovery money. we won't take too large of a cut.

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black holecrapflinger

Reply 6 years ago

I don't think I'm special. I believe that everyone has the ability, but not everyone is good at it. Like playing the piano; everyone can be taught to play 'Twinkle Twinkle Little Star,' but not everyone will be good at it.

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Kitemanblack hole

Reply 6 years ago

No, it's not "too bad".

You made a statement that we (anybody reading this) are supposed to accept as fact. However, this "fact" contravenes the nature of reality as it is currently understood by Science.

Note the word "currently".

If you were to provide valid, verifiable evidence that your alleged ability is real, then true Science would have to move on with that, altering the models we have of the Universe to include and explain your powers.

Providing such evidence would be hard work, but eminently worth it (link), and I would happily help you design a suitable experiment for a 50% share of the proceeds..

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black hole

6 years ago

Remote viewing/psychic abilities are 100 percent real. I have a small level of natural skill. I can often predict which side will land up in a coin flip. In my case, I believe it to be partly genetic. My mom, when told that so-and-so is going to have a baby, can almost always tell if it'll be a boy or a girl. If you want to improve your abilities, check out the free 'ESP Trainer' app, developed by Russell Targ, an expert remote viewer. It's been quite helpful.

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crapflingerblack hole

Reply 6 years ago

would you say that you get your coin flip predictions correct, on average, 50% of the time?

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black holecrapflinger

Reply 6 years ago

No, it's fairly random, sometimes I'm completely wrong, but I'm trying to improve.

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crapflingerblack hole

Reply 6 years ago

completely wrong as in you guess "sevens!" instead of heads/tails?

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black holecrapflinger

Reply 6 years ago

Okay, maybe the coin toss wasn't the best example. What I'm trying to say is, I sometimes know which side will come up. It's not just guessing.

On a side note, read some books by Russell Targ. He explains this much better than I do.

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Goodhartblack hole

Reply 6 years ago

I can predict, with a 90% accuracy which side a coin will come up, but not because I have ANY psychic ability. I am just observant. Some people will pick up on this "pattern" without realizing what they are seeing. I know exactly what I am seeing.

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crapflingerblack hole

Reply 6 years ago

i sometimes "know" which side will come up too....it's called guessing. it's how everyone "knows" which side will come up....sometimes. unless you can remove the "sometimes" bit, then you are, in fact, guessing not knowing.

you're suffering from something really common, it's called confirmation bias. youv'e decided that you can predict a coin flip, and you're shaping your evidence to support that conclusion. instead of looking at the evidence to arrive at a conclusion.

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Kitemanblack hole

Reply 6 years ago

If it's "fairly random", then you are predicting nothing, just guessing from a limited number of options.

You must get a friend to test you: they toss a coin a thousand times. Each time, you predict the result while the coin is in the air.

If you get it right significantly more than 500 times out of the 1000, then it's testing properly, starting at 10,000 tosses of the coin.

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black holeKiteman

Reply 6 years ago

No, what I meant is that the regularity of my correct predictions is random. Sometimes I get 10 in a row right, and other times I don't get one right.

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Kitemanblack hole

Reply 6 years ago

Ten in a row out of how many? Ten? A hundred? A thousand?

Ten right in a row is perfectly possible with random guesses. Plus, in random guessing, "none at all" is just as likely "all correct".

Test it properly, or you've got nothing.

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crapflingerblack hole

Reply 6 years ago

so basically, you have just stated EXACTLY the same probability anyone has at predicting a coin toss. I.E, you either get it right, or you don't

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black holecrapflinger

Reply 6 years ago

No, most people won't get it right several times in a row.

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crapflingerblack hole

Reply 6 years ago

no, most people will get it right several times in a row....or not....that's called probabilities. on each and every coin flip you have EXACTLY 50% chance of getting it right. you have EXACTLY the same chance the next coin flip. there are ANY NUMBER of factors thatt effect how the coin will flip. it's how probabilities work man. it's like....math!

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563g

7 years ago

I have no dout that telekinesis is real I'm actually practicing it but befor you attempt this beware that you powers come from heaven or hell think about it first and be carfull

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Goodhart

10 years ago

How many are able to perform telekinesis in the forum ? Raise my hand ! LOL

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zachninmeGoodhart

Reply 10 years ago

ROFL I thought you were saying that YOU could, then I re-read it a few times :P

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Goodhartzachninme

Reply 10 years ago

I have a few cardboard trophies I won for being Punking and daubed Super-double entendre man LOL

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its a lionGoodhart

Reply 10 years ago

i read that yesterday and didnt understand it. now it makes sense and im mad at myself for not seeing it sooner.

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Goodhartits a lion

Reply 10 years ago

Don't beat yourself up over it, it was really subtle and vague ;-)

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Kiteman

11 years ago

Starting point to have your ability recognised:

When you have a dream that you recognise as precogniscent, write it down in as much detail as possible as soon as you wake. Focus on indicators to time, date and location. Date and sign the document, then lodge it with a dis-interested third party (such as a lawyer).

Come the pre-cog event occuring, write it down again, again in as much detail as possible, without referring to the original dream-notes. If possible, get a reliable co-witness to independently write their own account of the event.

Take both accounts to the lawyer, and, in his presence, compare the three. If there are any commonalities that cannot be accounted for by mere coincidence or foreknowledge, and they happen regularly, then you can contact either the CIA or James Randi.

For the record, though, it's all woowoo.

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zachninmeKiteman

Reply 11 years ago

I heard how the James Randi thing, the Million bucks, is actually a sucky deal. Its mostly (all but $50,000 or $5,000, cant recall) were in bonds, and its paid out over time, and all this other sucky stuff that you had to go through. CIA on the other hand, would be better.